Decade of Hope: Midpoint Check-in

In the midst of COVID 19 and personal turmoil, I wrote a blog post thinking ahead about the decade starting with the year 2020.  I included exciting space missions and personal goals.  We are now at the middle of the decade and I thought it would be nice to check in on those ideas and see how they progressing.  Let’s see how we did!

Summary from ChatGPT:

Mars 2020 (Perseverance & Ingenuity)

• 2020 Vision: The Perseverance rover was set to search for signs of ancient life, collect samples for return to Earth, and test new technologies, including the Ingenuity helicopter.
• 2025 Update:
  • Perseverance has been a major success, collecting rock samples and conducting detailed analyses of the Martian surface. It’s preparing for the Mars Sample Return mission, projected for the 2030s.
  • Ingenuity, initially a technology demonstration, has completed over 100 flights, helping scout terrain and showcasing the potential of aerial exploration on Mars.

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Artemis Program (2024 & 2028)

• 2020 Vision: The Artemis program aimed to return humans to the Moon by 2024 (Artemis III) and establish a sustainable lunar base by 2028.
• 2025 Update:
  • Artemis I successfully completed an uncrewed mission in 2022, validating critical systems.
  • Artemis II, a crewed flyby of the Moon, was delayed based on the need for a redesign.
  • The timeline for a lunar base has shifted, but projects like the Lunar Gateway and surface habitation systems are steadily progressing. A sustainable presence remains a goal for later in the decade.

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Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• 2020 Vision: EVs were becoming mainstream, with Tesla leading the charge and many automakers announcing ambitious EV production targets for the 2020s.
• 2025 Update:
  • EV adoption has surged, with nearly 20% of global car sales projected to be EVs by the end of 2025.
  • Major automakers like Ford, GM, and Volkswagen have launched competitive EVs.
  • Charging infrastructure has expanded significantly, with ultra-fast chargers becoming more common. Battery technology has improved, offering longer ranges and faster charging times.

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Autonomous Driving

• 2020 Vision: Companies like Tesla, Waymo, and others were testing Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous driving, with hopes of commercial deployment by mid-decade.
• 2025 Update:
  • Fully autonomous (Level 5) driving remains elusive due to technical and regulatory challenges.
  • Level 2 and 3 systems (e.g., Tesla’s FSD Beta, GM’s Super Cruise, Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot) are now available, enabling advanced driver assistance but requiring human oversight.
  • Waymo and Cruise have deployed small-scale autonomous ride-hailing services in select cities, offering a glimpse of the future.

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Renewable Energy

• 2020 Vision: Renewable energy sources like solar and wind were growing rapidly, with ambitions to decarbonize power grids globally.
• 2025 Update:
  • Renewable energy now accounts for nearly 35% of global electricity generation.
  • Solar and wind costs continue to decline, making them the cheapest energy sources in many regions.
  • Battery storage and grid-scale solutions are improving reliability, with significant investments in green hydrogen and other storage technologies to complement renewables.

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Smart Homes

• 2020 Vision: Smart home technology, including voice assistants, IoT devices, and automation, was expected to enhance convenience, efficiency, and energy management.
• 2025 Update:
  • Smart home adoption has grown, with Matter, a universal smart home standard launched in 2022, ensuring better interoperability across devices.
  • AI-driven assistants like Alexa and Google Assistant have become more intuitive and capable of proactive management.
  • Smart energy management systems now integrate with solar panels, EV chargers, and appliances, allowing homeowners to optimize energy usage and save costs.

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There were a few things I missed on my first post like the advances that the James Webb Telescope is making for astronomy.  Also, the rise of private space companies has increased the possibilities of space tourism and future asteroid mining.

The most obvious idea is the rise and power of artificial intelligence.  We are not quite at Jarvis or Star Trek levels, but very clear applications are already being used in business and personal life.  Even a quick search can be done much more simply than a standard search engine. 

At a more personal level, I have moved into a new area of work and really learned a lot about small business insurance.  More recently, I have been moved to a temporary assignment as a process engineer working with the “umbrella” department.  If I can grab a position when the temporary assignment is complete, it would be a very nice jump in responsibility and paycheck.  Regardless of the outcome, I am in much less debt than before and was able to purchase a house.  This will make the next several years more stable (assuming nothing else breaks).  This year is the “Year of People” for me, so more church visits, more volunteer work, and hopefully more social events.